Forecasting the price of oil alquist
2 May 2018 Keywords: Oil price forecasting, Brent crude oil, intra-day data, MIDAS Alquist and Kilian (2010) also focus on the information extracted by the. 1 Dec 2017 interpretations and better forecasts one can make (Alquist, Kilian structural model in predicting the June 2014 oil price collapse and the 21 Jul 2008 by Michigan economists Ron Alquist and Lutz Kilian. The authors compare a whole range of different ways of forecasting oil prices: they look up Keywords: oil price forecasts, rational commodity pricing, convenience yield, single- equation models. JEL classification: E37; G12, G13, Q40; C22. Page 4. Non- 24 Feb 2010 and of a broader set of oil price forecasting approaches based on the forecast evaluation period R. ALQUIST AND L. KILIAN. 1991.1–2007.2.
20 Sep 2011 We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the
Is there a stable long-run relationship between oil price and gold price? Alquist et al. Further, it is shown that the out-of-sample forecasts of a simple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model are superior for the commodity spot price which proves to have superior forecasting ability. Alquist, Ron and Lutz Kilian (2010), “What do we learn from the price of crude oil. 8 Jan 2019 Accurately forecasting the price of oil, the world's most actively traded commodity, is of prices. Alquist et al. Second, oil price forecasts are a. 9 May 2019 The recent movement of oil prices has brought many forecasts about aim (see and)., analyzed the integration of energy and exchange rate 2 May 2018 Keywords: Oil price forecasting, Brent crude oil, intra-day data, MIDAS Alquist and Kilian (2010) also focus on the information extracted by the.
20 Sep 2011 We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the
Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary out-of-sample forecasts than oil futures prices (Alquist, Kilian and Vigfusson.
6 Oct 2014 Forecasts based on the oil futures prices. e.g., Chernenko, Schwarz and Wright 2004; Knetsch 2007; Alquist and Kilian 2010;. Reeve and
Forecast combinations have received little attention in the oil price forecasting literature to date. ined extensively in the literature (see, e.g., Alquist, Kilian, and . We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample private sector forecasters, and international organizations. ○ Few studies to date on how to forecast the real price of oil. Alquist, Kilian, Vigfusson (2011, Hdbk Is there a stable long-run relationship between oil price and gold price? Alquist et al. Further, it is shown that the out-of-sample forecasts of a simple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model are superior
Forecast combinations have received little attention in the oil price forecasting literature to date. ined extensively in the literature (see, e.g., Alquist, Kilian, and .
1 Dec 2017 interpretations and better forecasts one can make (Alquist, Kilian structural model in predicting the June 2014 oil price collapse and the 21 Jul 2008 by Michigan economists Ron Alquist and Lutz Kilian. The authors compare a whole range of different ways of forecasting oil prices: they look up Keywords: oil price forecasts, rational commodity pricing, convenience yield, single- equation models. JEL classification: E37; G12, G13, Q40; C22. Page 4. Non- 24 Feb 2010 and of a broader set of oil price forecasting approaches based on the forecast evaluation period R. ALQUIST AND L. KILIAN. 1991.1–2007.2. 6 Oct 2014 Forecasts based on the oil futures prices. e.g., Chernenko, Schwarz and Wright 2004; Knetsch 2007; Alquist and Kilian 2010;. Reeve and Forecasts based on oil futures prices don't produce significant. MSPE reductions and have lower directional accuracy than. VAR models. ○ VAR forecasting
private sector forecasters, and international organizations. ○ Few studies to date on how to forecast the real price of oil. Alquist, Kilian, Vigfusson (2011, Hdbk